Frozen Accident - Revision history

Admin: Reverted edits by Eboxytezi (Talk) to last version by Jfromm

2011-02-11T21:35:01Z

Reverted edits by Eboxytezi (Talk) to last version by Jfromm

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:35, 11 February 2011
Line 3:		Line 3:
	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point\|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.		'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point\|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.

-	>== Choke Points ==	+	== Choke Points ==

-	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already ~~"~~in the air~~"~~, or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).	+	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).

	Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback\|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:		Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback\|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:
-	: ~~"~~In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors.~~"~~	+	: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."
-		+
-	~~----~~	+
-	~~<div style=~~"background: #E8E8E8 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; overflow: hidden; font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 2em; position: absolute; width: 2000px; height: 2000px; z-index: 1410065407; top: 0px; left: -250px; padding-left: 400px; padding-top: 50px; padding-bottom: 350px;">	+
-	~~----~~	+
-	~~=[http://ykujuni.co.cc This Page Is Currently Under Construction And Will Be Available Shortly, Please Visit Reserve Copy Page]=~~	+
-	~~----~~	+
-	~~=[http://ykujuni.co.cc CLICK HERE]=~~	+
-	~~----~~	+
-	~~</div>~~	+

	== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==		== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==

Eboxytezi at 00:21, 18 November 2010

2010-11-18T00:21:10Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:21, 18 November 2010
Line 3:		Line 3:
	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point\|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.		'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point\|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.

-	== Choke Points ==	+	>== Choke Points ==

-	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).	+	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).

	Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback\|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:		Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback\|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:
-	: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."	+	: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."
		+
		+	----
		+	<div style="background: #E8E8E8 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; overflow: hidden; font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 2em; position: absolute; width: 2000px; height: 2000px; z-index: 1410065407; top: 0px; left: -250px; padding-left: 400px; padding-top: 50px; padding-bottom: 350px;">
		+	----
		+	=[http://ykujuni.co.cc This Page Is Currently Under Construction And Will Be Available Shortly, Please Visit Reserve Copy Page]=
		+	----
		+	=[http://ykujuni.co.cc CLICK HERE]=
		+	----
		+	</div>

	== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==		== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==

Jfromm: /* Choke Points */

2008-11-16T16:13:10Z

Choke Points

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:13, 16 November 2008
Line 7:		Line 7:
	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).		All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).

-	Steven Strogatz said in an [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:	+	Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback\|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:
	: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."		: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."

Jfromm: /* Choke Points */

2008-11-16T16:12:25Z

Choke Points

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:12, 16 November 2008
Line 7:		Line 7:
	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).		All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).

		+	Steven Strogatz said in an [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]:
		+	: "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors."

	== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==		== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==

Jfromm at 11:46, 4 October 2008

2008-10-04T11:46:31Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:46, 4 October 2008
Line 1:		Line 1:
	{{SelfOrg}}		{{SelfOrg}}

-	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.	+	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point\|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.

	== Choke Points ==		== Choke Points ==

Jfromm at 15:48, 13 September 2008

2008-09-13T15:48:43Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:48, 13 September 2008
Line 1:		Line 1:
	{{SelfOrg}}		{{SelfOrg}}

-	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.	+	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.

	== Choke Points ==		== Choke Points ==

Jfromm at 15:03, 13 September 2008

2008-09-13T15:03:11Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:03, 13 September 2008
Line 1:		Line 1:
	{{SelfOrg}}		{{SelfOrg}}

-	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).	+	'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback\|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents.
		+
		+	== Choke Points ==
		+
		+	All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence\|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback\|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).
		+

	== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==		== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==
Line 36:		Line 41:

	* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-in Main Wikipedia Entry for Lock-In]		* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-in Main Wikipedia Entry for Lock-In]
		+	* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choke_point Wikipedia Entry for Choke point]
	* [http://www.europhysicsnews.com/full/13/article5/article5.html Plectics: The study of simplicity and complexity], Murray Gell-Mann, Europhysics News (2002) Vol. 33 No. 1		* [http://www.europhysicsnews.com/full/13/article5/article5.html Plectics: The study of simplicity and complexity], Murray Gell-Mann, Europhysics News (2002) Vol. 33 No. 1
	* http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html		* http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html
		+	* [http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/suncommentary/la-oe-kluger3-2008aug03,0,2056015.story LATimes story about choke points]

	[[Category:Basic Principles]]		[[Category:Basic Principles]]

Jfromm: New page: {{SelfOrg}} '''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differen...

2008-08-30T10:58:18Z

New page: {{SelfOrg}} '''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differen...

New page

{{SelfOrg}}

'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market).

== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems ==

The possible and alternative histories of a [[Complex System|complex system]]
can be considered as a branching tree with probabilities.
As time goes on and a given branching is reached, one of its
branches and one of the possible outcomes is selected. This
selection is often caused by an accident or is the result of
random influence. Before the branching occurs, there are only
probabilities for the different alternatives. After the branching,
the other alternatives become inaccessible. A frozen accident of
history marks and determines one of several specific historical
routes.

According to Gell-Mann, frozen accidents are responsible for the increase of complexity during the course of time. The accumulation of more and more frozen accidents are one reason why there is "a tendency for entities of greater and greater complexity to come into being as time goes on."
(quoted from [http://www.europhysicsnews.com/full/13/article5/article5.html]).

== Frozen Accidents and Emergence ==

Frozen accidents in [[Evolutionary System|evolutionary systems]] are related
to strong [[Emergence|emergence]], to the appearance of a new code and a
new [[System|system]] in a [[System|system]]. All life-forms use the same genetic
[[Code|code]], all western languages use (nearly) the same alphabet, and all computer
programs use the same binary [[Code|code]]. Genetic sequences can be changed easily, but
the genetic code does not change, words can be changed easily, but the alphabet does
not change, programs can be changed easily, but the binary code does not change.
It is as if the underlying [[System|systems]] "feels unable to move" under the
pressure and weight of the system built and running on top
it, because ''if'' it is changed, all higher embedded systems
would immediately crumble down and stop working.

== References ==

* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock-in Main Wikipedia Entry for Lock-In]
* [http://www.europhysicsnews.com/full/13/article5/article5.html Plectics: The study of simplicity and complexity], Murray Gell-Mann, Europhysics News (2002) Vol. 33 No. 1
* http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html

[[Category:Basic Principles]]