Frozen Accident
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'''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents. | '''Frozen accidents''' are according to Murray Gell-Mann events or accidents with widespread consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. They are similar to Holland's [[Lever_Point|lever points]]: small events that change the world. He defines them like this: "most single accidents make very little difference to the future, but others may have widespread ramifications, many diverse consequences all traceable to one chance event that could have turned out differently. Those we call frozen accidents." ,see [http://www.edge.org/documents/ThirdCulture/zc-Ch.19.html]. They seem to shape history, but history also makes them visible in the first place. Branching processes and bifurcations, e.g. through positive [[Feedback|feedback]], can turn small fluctuations and random events into frozen accidents. | ||
| - | + | == Choke Points == | |
| - | All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already | + | All manner of phenomena - epidemics, traffic, even politics - move through tiny choke points, seemingly inconsequential bottlenecks that may shape the very direction of history. They are points in history where small shifts cause huge effects. A single event can cause huge effects for several reasons: it can trigger for example a major conflict or war which was already "in the air", or it can be multiplied by some kind of amplification. Frozen accidents occur if a process is [[Path Dependence|path-dependent]] and are often the result of positive feedback. Small fluctuations or accidents at the beginning can be reinforced through the positive [[Feedback|feedback]] process to large, unpredictable deviations, until they are finally conserved for a long time in the resulting frozen '''lock-in state''', where one product dominates and allocates the entire system (for example a market). |
Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]: | Steven Strogatz said in an interview about the effect of [[Feedback|feedback]] loops [http://www.seedmagazine.com/news/2008/11/seed_salon_steven_strogatz_car.php]: | ||
| - | : | + | : "In the world of dynamical systems, from a mathematical standpoint, feedback loops, especially in complex systems, can be really scary. Because of their unintended consequences. They can create all the beauty and richness in the world around us as well as unforeseen horrors." |
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== Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems == | == Frozen Accidents and Complex Systems == | ||
